For any given river, what is the probability that a 20-year flood will occur in 2018?

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Prepare for the Introduction to Physical Geology Exam with study guides and multiple choice questions. Each question comes with hints and detailed explanations to help you grasp key concepts in geology. Ace your exam with confidence!

Multiple Choice

For any given river, what is the probability that a 20-year flood will occur in 2018?

Explanation:
In hydrology, a 20-year flood is defined by an annual exceedance probability of 1 in 20, or 5%. That means in any given year, the chance that the river exceeds this threshold is 5%, regardless of what happened in previous years. So for 2018, the probability of experiencing a flood of that magnitude is 5%. This doesn’t imply it won’t happen again soon or that it happens exactly once every 20 years; each year is an independent 5% chance.

In hydrology, a 20-year flood is defined by an annual exceedance probability of 1 in 20, or 5%. That means in any given year, the chance that the river exceeds this threshold is 5%, regardless of what happened in previous years. So for 2018, the probability of experiencing a flood of that magnitude is 5%. This doesn’t imply it won’t happen again soon or that it happens exactly once every 20 years; each year is an independent 5% chance.

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